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Tuesday
Mar202012

Data-driven simulation of jurors & *juries* in acquaintance rape case

Slides from today's class in my Harvard Law School criminal law course.

 Presents individual-level mock juror data from Culture, Cognition, and Consent: Who Perceives What, and Why, in 'Acquaintance Rape' Cases, 158 U. Pa. L. Rev. 729 (2010) and associated jury-verdict simulations generated by Maggie Wittlin's amazing Jurysim program.

Described in her Results of Deliberation paper (which also has Stata code for the program), Jurysim makes it possible to estimate the likelihood that a jury drawn from a particular "venire" -- i.e., a pool of prospective jurors whose demographics are specified by the user. Basically, it's a nested set of simulations--one for selecting 1000 juries, another for computing each individual juror's pre-deliberation or first-ballot vote, and then another for determining the outcome of deliberations (i.e., the verdict) given the first-ballot vote for each jury's individual members.... Yow, zoiks!

I'd say I know 100x more about what the data in Culture, Cognition &  Consent & Whose Eyes Are You Going to Believe? Scott v. Harris and the Perils of Cognitive Illiberalism, 122 Harv. L. Rev. 837 (2009), another study that MW features in her paper, mean w/ the benefit of MW's simulations. 

 

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