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« The "asymmetry thesis": another PMRP issue that won't go away | Main | Solving 2 nasty confounds: The "Politically Motivated Reasoning Paradigm [PMRP] Design" »
Sunday
Dec202015

Weekend update: "Color" preprint of " 'Ideology' vs. 'Situation Sense' "!

I've posted a revised "preprint" version of Kahan, D.M., Hoffman, D.A., Evans, D., Devins, N., Lucci, E.A. & Cheng, K. 'Ideology'or'Situation Sense'? An Experimental Investigation of Motivated Reasoning and Professional Judgment, U. Pa. L. Rev. 164 (in press).

It is prettttttttttttttttttty darn close to final.

Main difference is that it has color rather than B&W graphics.  I have a feeling, w/ all the advances in information technology associated with "our internet," & w/ humans now having walked on the moon & all, that I might still live to see the day when all scholarly journals use color graphics (at least for their on-line versions; I think I've already live long enough to see the day when no one reads the "hardcopy"/"print" versions of journals!).... Call me a dreamer!

I'm sure, too, you all remember but in case not:  This is the study that examines a sample of judges, lawyers, law students & ordinary people to test competing theories about how identity-protective cognition relates to critical reasoning & professional judgment. 

We find that judges & lawyers who are as culturally polarized on societal risks-- like climate change & marijuana legalization--as are members of general population converge in readings of manifestly ambiguous statutes despite experimental manipulations that were intended to and did polarize culturally diverse  members of the public (and to a modest extentculturally diverse law students).

We view this result as most consistent with the theory that professional judgment furnishes experts with a degree of immunity from "identity-protective reasoning" when they perform "in-domain" but not "out-of-domain" decisionmaking tasks.

But as I emphasized in another recent post (one that presents an excerpt from another "in press" paper, The Politically Motivated Reasoning Paradigm), the "weight" of the evidence the study furnishes in this regard-- particularly as it relates to other types of experts like scientists who study contested societal risks--is indeed modest.  More study is called for!

I'm sure I'll live long enough to see this & every other interesting question about cognition definitively resolved too.  At which point, life will be so damn boring that people will stop fretting about its finite duration.

Anyway, happy clicking on grpahics!

 

1. Summary data

2. Multivariate regression model estimates

3. "Weight of the evidence" likelihood ratios

4. Data-collection process


David Hoffman carefully extracts cultural worldview from a state supreme court judge




 

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