follow CCP

Recent blog entries
popular papers

Science Curiosity and Political Information Processing

What Is the "Science of Science Communication"?

Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem

Ideology, Motivated Cognition, and Cognitive Reflection: An Experimental Study

'Ideology' or 'Situation Sense'? An Experimental Investigation of Motivated Reasoning and Professional Judgment

A Risky Science Communication Environment for Vaccines

Motivated Numeracy and Enlightened Self-Government

Making Climate Science Communication Evidence-based—All the Way Down 

Neutral Principles, Motivated Cognition, and Some Problems for Constitutional Law 

Cultural Cognition of Scientific Consensus
 

The Tragedy of the Risk-Perception Commons: Science Literacy and Climate Change

"They Saw a Protest": Cognitive Illiberalism and the Speech-Conduct Distinction 

Geoengineering and the Science Communication Environment: a Cross-Cultural Experiment

Fixing the Communications Failure

Why We Are Poles Apart on Climate Change

The Cognitively Illiberal State 

Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn't, and Why? An Experimental Study

Cultural Cognition of the Risks and Benefits of Nanotechnology

Whose Eyes Are You Going to Believe? An Empirical Examination of Scott v. Harris

Cultural Cognition and Public Policy

Culture, Cognition, and Consent: Who Perceives What, and Why, in "Acquaintance Rape" Cases

Culture and Identity-Protective Cognition: Explaining the White Male Effect

Fear of Democracy: A Cultural Evaluation of Sunstein on Risk

Cultural Cognition as a Conception of the Cultural Theory of Risk

« Hey--want your own "OSI_2.0" dataset to play with? Here you go! | Main | Toggling the switch between cognitive engagement with "America's two climate changes"--not so hard in *the lab* »
Saturday
Mar262016

Weekend update: modeling the impact of the "according to climate scientists prefix" on identity-expressive vs. science-knowledge revealing responses to climate science literacy items

I did some analyses to help address issues that arose in an interesting discussion with @dypoon about how to interpret the locally weighted regression outputs featured in "yesterday's" post. 

Basically, the question is what to make of the respondents at the very highest levels of Ordinary Science Intelligence

When the prefix "according to climate scientists" is appended to the items, those individuals are the most likely to get the "correct" response, regardless of their political outlooks. That's clear enough.

It's also bright & clear that when the prefix is removed, subjects at all levels of OSI are more disposed to select the identity-expressive answer, whether right or wrong. 

What's more those highest in OSI seem even more disposed to select the identity-expressive "wrong" answer than those modest in that ability.  Insfar as they are the ones most capable of getting the right answer when the prefix is appended, they necessarily evince the strongest tendency to substitute the incorrect identity-expressive for the correct, science-knowledge-evincing response when the prefix is removed.

But are those who are at the very tippy top of the OSI hierarchy resisting the impulse (or the consciously perceived opportunity) to respond in an identity-protective manner--by selecting the incorrect but ideologically congenial answer-- when the prefix is removed?  Is that what the little little upward curls mean at the far right end of the dashed line for right-leaning subjects in "flooding" and for left-leaning ones in "nuclear"?

@Dypoon seems to think so; I don't.  He/she sensed signal; I caught the distinct scent of noise.

Well, one way to try to sort this out is by modeling the data.

The locally weighted regression just tells us the mean probabilities of "correct" answers at tiny little increments of OSI. A logistic regression model can show us how the precision of the estimated means--the information we need to try to ferret out signal from noise-- is affected by the number of observations, which necessarily get smaller as one approaches the upper end of the Ordinary Science Intelligence scale.

Here are a couple of ways to graphically display the models (nuclear & flooding). 

This one plots the predicted probability of correctly answering the items with and without the prefix for subjects with the specified political orientations as their OSI scores increase: 

 

This one illustrates, again in relation to OSI, how much more likely someone is to select the incorrect, identity-expressive response for the no-prefix version than he or she is to select the incorrect response for the prefix version:

The graphic shows us just how much the confounding of identity and knowledge in a survey item can distort measurement of how likely an individual is to know climate-science propositions that run contrary to his or her ideological predisposition on global warming.

I think the results are ... interesting.

What do you think?

To avoid discussion forking (the second leading cause of microcephaly in the Neterhlands Antilles), I'm closing off comments here.  Say your piece in the thread for "yesterday's" post.

PrintView Printer Friendly Version

EmailEmail Article to Friend